National Post

April 1, 2002

Beleaguered Sharon may be war's casualty

Peres squeezes from the left, Netanyahu presses from the right

By Jonathan Kay

From the day Ariel Sharon, Israel's Prime Minister, took office, his anti-terrorism strategy has been hamstrung by world opinion, occasional U.S. censure and peacemaking efforts, and a Palestinian foe that has few assets inviting retaliation. But as domestic dissatisfaction percolates in Israel, his situation has become more complicated: It now seems possible the terrorist war will claim his coalition government as a casualty.

Democracy has always presented certain disadvantages where waging war is concerned. Military campaigns require nations to make short-term sacrifices for some larger long-term benefit. But voters and the politicians they elect often cannot wait for the long term. This is especially true of wars fought against terrorism on home soil. When murderers slaughter innocents and terrorize a whole population, the long-term is forgotten in a blaze of blood. Everyone loses their patience and a window of opportunity opens for opposition politicians who offer more radical options.

In the United States, George W. Bush did not have to worry about this phenomenon. The Sept. 11 attacks came as a shock to the American people and they gave the U.S. President carte blanche to respond as he saw fit. But Israel is a different case. The country's heartland has been under threat of violent attack more or less continuously for five decades. Every Israeli has an opinion on counterterrorism policy and there is no taboo against criticizing the government. As in other democratic nations that have long experience with terrorists -- Sri Lanka, for instance -- politicians often rise and fall based on their ability to fight terrorist armies.

Mr. Sharon is beleaguered from both sides of the political spectrum. Leading the threat from the left is Shimon Peres, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister. As with Mr. Sharon, Mr. Peres is a former defence minister whose military credentials extend back to Israel's 1948 War of Independence. But unlike the Prime Minister, Mr. Peres has often held a utopian vision of the Arab-Israeli peace process. Speaking in 1993, he declared Israel was "going to copy a European example which is called Benelux. I hope the relations between the Jordanians, the Palestinians, and us will be very much of the same nature that exists in [Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg]."

Even in the current highly stressed climate, Mr. Peres and his constituency endorse more negotiations with fewer attached conditions. Last year, in fact, Mr. Peres threatened to quit the coalition government over its reluctance to negotiate with Yasser Arafat, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority. "I didn't enter this government in order to betray my soul," he told Mr. Sharon.

In March, Mr. Peres continued to talk with Mr. Arafat -- three months after Mr. Sharon dismissed Mr. Arafat as "irrelevant." Like many on the left, he thinks the best way to promote peace is to reach a deal -- any deal -- with the Palestinians. The peace plan recently proposed by Saudi Arabia, Mr. Peres says, is a "fascinating, interesting opportunity." Last December, he spoke with Palestinian authorities about a desperate plan to create a fast-track Palestinian state on 80% of the Gaza Strip and 42% of the West Bank.

Mr. Sharon's somewhat muddled, invade-and-retreat campaign against Palestinian-abetted terrorism has spawned threatened defections on the right, also. In February, for instance, Israel's far-right Tourism Minister, Benny Eilon, threatened to quit the government after Mr. Sharon met with Palestinian officials.

But the greatest threat from the right may originate with Benjamin Netanyahu. In a Jerusalem Post article published over the weekend, the former prime minister argued that "there is no place for negotiations and no hope for reaching any sustainable peace agreement" with the current Palestinian Authority regime. "First, we must immediately dismantle the Palestinian Authority and expel Arafat," he wrote. "Second, we must encircle the main Palestinian population centres, purge them of terrorists and eradicate the terrorist infrastructure. Third, we must establish security separation lines that will allow Israeli armed forces to enter Palestinian territory, but prevent Palestinian terrorists from entering our towns and cities."

Echoing the complaints of Israel's right wing, Mr. Netanyahu attacked Mr. Sharon for his "half-hearted military action" and "excessive concern about the international community." "The claim that we have tried all military means to end the terror is baseless," he concluded. "We have not even used a fraction of our military power."

Although Mr. Sharon is decried in the Arab world as a right-wing extremist, his policies are actually less hawkish than those advocated by many Israelis. With every terrorist bomb that goes off, though, Mr. Netanyahu's constituency grows; and so does his chance of becoming Israel's next Prime Minister.